PIÑERA CLOSES GAP IN CHILE’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Bachelet Prepares For Second-Round Elections

Support for presidential front-runner Michelle Bachelet has dropped 9.7 percent according to a poll released Thursday by Ipsos Search Marketing, making all but certain that a run-off vote will be required following the Dec. 11 presidential vote.

The Ipsos poll found that support for the center-left Concertación candidate Bachelet dropped 9.7 percent – plus or minus a 3.1 percent margin of error - from 48.2 percent in September to 38.5 percent today, while support for far-left Juntos Podemos Más candidate Tomás Hirsch grew from 3.4 percent to 7.6 percent in the latest poll.

Right-wing candidate Sebastián Piñera of the National Renovation (RN) party continues to distance himself from Chile’s other rightist candidate, Joaquin Lavín of the Independent Democratic Union (UDI). Piñera currently leads by 6.1 percent, up from 20.7 percent in September to today’s 22.1 percent, while Lavín’s support remained static at 16 percent.

Hirsch’s relatively strong showing is expected to cost Bachelet a first round win however, political strategists expect Bachelet will absorb these votes in a second round run-off.

The poll also measured citizens’ attitudes in the event of a second round vote between either of the right-wing candidates and the presidential frontrunner Michelle Bachelet. If this occurs, Piñera is expected to win 39.5 percent against Bachelet’s 47 percent. If Lavín makes it to the second round the poll predicts he would receive 32.4 percent of the vote compared to Bachelet’s 55.1 percent.

The exact numbers given in the Ipsos poll are slightly different from predictions by respected political scientist Pepe Auth, member of the left-wing Party for Democracy (PPD), but both come to similar conclusions. Auth predicted that Bachelet will win 47.3 percent of the vote, Piñera 26.7 percent, Lavín 21.4 percent, and Hirsch 4 percent.

According to Auth, the election will be decided by 1.8 million undecided voters. For Piñera to win the election he would have to take 86 percent of these votes while Bachelet needs to win just 15 percent to become Chile’s next president.

Both assessments of the upcoming election indicate that the real fireworks will come from Chile’s parliamentary elections. Because of Chile’s binomial majority system, each parliamentary district votes on two representatives, historically one left-wing and one right-wing candidate. If one party is able to double the percentage of the opposite party (i.e. 66 percent of the vote or more) they are allowed to send two candidates to parliament.

Earlier polls suggested the possibility that the Concertación alliance could double right-wing opponents is key senate races in Santiago however, the Ipsos poll ruled out the likelihood of this eventuality.

In western Santiago, UDI party president Jovino Novoa seemed to be at risk of losing his senate seat to Concertación candidates Guido Girardi (PPD) and Andrés Zaldívar (DC), but the Ipsos poll predicts that Girardi and Zaldívar would only receive 54.9 percent of the vote, not enough to beat out the combined total of right-wing candidates Novoa (18.3 percent) and Roberto Fantuzzi (RN) (14.1 percent).

In eastern Santiago, Soledad Alvear (DC) is expected to win one senate seat with 41.3 percent of the vote while Lily Pérez (RN) and Pablo Longueira (UDI) are in a statistical dead heat with 19 and 17.9 percent respectively.

The Ipsos poll was based on interviews with 1,606 people from the all of Chile’s major cities between Nov. 22 and 29.